On July 29, 2026, data released by the Gold Traders Association of Thailand showed that Thailand gold bars (96.5% purity) were quoted at 29,850 THB per baht weight, equivalent to a premium of approximately USD 15 per ounce over the international gold price, setting a record high premium level. This phenomenon reflects the continuous heating up of gold demand in the ASEAN region, driven both by global inflation expectations and central bank gold purchases on the macro side, and by structural factors specific to Southeast Asian consumption and investment.
Accelerating Shift in ASEAN Gold Demand Structure
According to the latest data from the World Gold Council, total gold demand in the six ASEAN countries (Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore) reached 386 tons in Q2 2026, up 9% year-on-year, with the share of investment demand for gold bars and coins exceeding 40% for the first time. Thailand, as the largest gold consumer in ASEAN, saw gold demand of 112 tons in Q2, with jewelry consumption declining to 55% and investment demand rising to 45%.
Kitti Sirisuk, chairman of the Gold Traders Association of Thailand, said: The Thai baht has come under pressure recently, coupled with rising global uncertainty. More and more Thai investors regard gold as a store of value rather than just for decoration. We have observed a significant increase in funds entering the market through gold ETFs.
Data from the Stock Exchange of Thailand shows that in the first four weeks of July, net inflows into Thai gold ETFs (such as TDEX Gold ETF) reached 4.3 billion THB, a record high for a single month.
Three Factors Behind the Widening Premium
The premium on Thailand gold bars (the amount by which local gold prices exceed international gold prices) has been widening since April 2026, rising from USD 5 per ounce to USD 15 at the end of July. Analysts point out that the premium increase is driven by three factors:
- Rising import costs: Global gold prices have been oscillating at high levels since breaking above USD 2,900 in March 2026, with the international gold price at USD 2,985 per ounce on July 29. Thai gold importers face higher financing costs and risk exposure, which are passed on to end-user prices.
- Effect of baht depreciation: In 2026, the Thai baht depreciated by about 4% against the US dollar, with the exchange rate at 34.85 THB/USD on July 29. A weaker baht makes gold priced in local currency more attractive but also raises import costs.
- Demand overflow into the gold bar market: Due to capacity constraints in jewelry processing, some retail demand has shifted to standard gold bars, leading to supply shortages. Data from the Bank of Thailand shows that net imports of gold bars in Q2 2026 increased by 35% year-on-year, but still cannot fully meet the surging investment demand.
Dual Drive from ASEAN Central Banks and ETF Flows
On the official front, central banks in ASEAN countries continue to increase gold reserves. Bank Indonesia announced a 6-ton increase in July, the Philippine central bank added 3 tons, and the Bank of Thailand has been steadily purchasing 1-2 tons per month since end-2025. As of end-June, Thailand's gold reserves stood at about 241 tons, ranking second in ASEAN.
In terms of ETF fund flows, global precious metal ETFs recorded net inflows of USD 1.28 billion in the last full week of July (July 20-26), with Asian markets contributing about 30%. Precious metal ETFs on the Singapore Exchange (such as SPDR Gold Shares, Silver ETF) saw particularly notable inflows, with Southeast Asian investor interest in gold ETFs returning to levels seen in early 2020 during the pandemic.
Investment Strategy: Focus on Gold-Silver Ratio and ETF Rotation
The current gold-silver ratio is about 78:1, at a moderately high historical level. Some analysts believe that if industrial demand recovers, silver may catch up, potentially bringing the ratio below 70:1. For ASEAN investors, cross-asset allocation could be considered via silver ETFs listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (such as Thai Silver ETF).
At the level of precious metal fund flows, recent gold ETF holdings have increased while silver ETF holdings have slightly decreased, indicating that funds still favor gold's safe-haven attributes in the short term. The total size of ASEAN precious metal ETFs reached USD 3.45 billion in July, up 22% year-on-year.
Risk Warning and Outlook
Despite strong gold demand in ASEAN, investors need to be aware of inherent risks in the precious metals market: first, uncertainty about subsequent Fed rate decisions may trigger gold price volatility; second, fluctuations in the Thai baht exchange rate will directly affect the premium on Thai gold bars; third, local gold bar liquidity is relatively poor compared to international gold bars, with bid-ask spreads typically at 0.5%-1%.
Looking ahead, the Gold Traders Association of Thailand expects ASEAN gold demand to maintain 5%-8% year-on-year growth in the second half of 2026. As the premium on Thai gold bars remains high, local investors could consider gaining exposure to gold prices at low cost through gold ETFs, avoiding erosion of returns due to excessive premiums. As the gateway to Southeast Asian ETFs, Thailand ETFs will continue to track gold ETF fund flows and local gold price dynamics, providing investors with real-time data and in-depth analysis.
