Gold and silver rebound strongly: multiple positives lift precious metals
On August 6, 2026, international precious metals markets saw a significant rebound. By the Asian close, spot gold settled at $2,858/oz, up 1.8% on the day, after touching an intraday high of $2,872, near $2,900; spot silver also strengthened, closing at $34.85/oz, up 2.3%, and the gold/silver ratio narrowed to around 82:1. Market analysts said the rally was mainly driven by a dovish shift in Fed policy expectations and rising Middle East geopolitical risks.
Fed minutes send key signal: rate-cut cycle may start early
The Fed's July meeting minutes, released in the early hours of August 6 Beijing time, showed most officials believe downside risks to the U.S. economy are rising, the labor market is cooling, and core PCE inflation has fallen for three consecutive months to around 2.4%, close to the Fed's 2% target. The minutes explicitly stated that "if economic data continue to meet expectations, a rate-cut option could be discussed as early as the September meeting." This was interpreted as a clear signal that the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. The dollar index fell 0.6% and broke below 102, providing strong support for precious metals.
Consequently, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to around 3.85%, and real rates dropped to 1.2%, further lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold. CME FedWatch data showed the market probability of a 25-bp September cut jumped from 42% before the minutes to 78%. Notably, the minutes also showed some officials lowered their assessments of the "neutral rate," implying more room for future cuts than markets expect. This dovish shift is a medium- to long-term positive for gold and silver.
Middle East situation escalates sharply: risk aversion sweeps global markets
Beyond Fed policy, geopolitical risk was another key variable driving the precious metals rebound. On the evening of August 5, Israel launched large-scale air strikes on southern Lebanon, sharply escalating regional tensions and raising fears the conflict could spread to Iran and other neighbors. International oil prices jumped over 3%, with Brent returning above $82/barrel, further fueling risk aversion.
As traditional safe-haven assets, gold and silver performed strongly during the risk event. Data showed SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world's largest gold ETF, saw net inflows of 4.2 tonnes on August 5, lifting holdings to 1,023 tonnes, a three-month high; silver ETF iShares Silver Trust (SLV) added 65 tonnes. In Thailand, the Thai gold ETF (GLDTHAI) saw net inflows exceeding 300 million baht that day, and local gold bar premiums widened to historical highs, showing Thai investors actively participating via ETFs.
Technical analysis: gold and silver near key resistance
Technically, gold found strong support near $2,800 after a pullback in late July and formed a double-bottom reversal. It has now reclaimed the key psychological $2,850 level. Short-term moving averages are in a bullish alignment, the MACD has formed a golden cross above zero, and momentum is expanding, indicating strong upward energy. If gold can effectively break the strong resistance zone of $2,880-$2,900, the next target is the record high near $2,950.
For silver, after completing a medium-term bottom near $32, it has now broken key resistance at $34. Silver's industrial and safe-haven attributes are both at play: on one hand, global green energy transition is boosting silver demand in solar and EVs; on the other, the gold/silver ratio has fallen from historical highs, leaving considerable catch-up room. Technically, silver's RSI is at 62, in a neutral-bullish zone and not yet overbought, implying further upside.
Gold/silver ratio narrows: silver's investment value stands out
Notably, the gold/silver ratio has narrowed from 90:1 in early July to 82:1 now, but remains above the five-year average of 75:1. Historical experience shows that in precious metals bull markets, silver tends to outperform gold, and the ratio could fall further to 70:1 or even lower. This suggests silver's relative valuation remains low. For investors seeking higher elasticity, allocating via silver ETFs (e.g., THSI) may be a strategy worth considering.
Analysts at Thailand Precious Metals ETF Investment Network noted that the narrowing trend in the gold/silver ratio reflects a double resonance of silver's industrial and investment demand. The global silver market has seen supply-demand deficits for four consecutive years, with the 2026 deficit expected to widen to 8,000 tonnes, and declining inventories providing solid support for silver prices. In addition, demand for silver jewelry and investment bars in emerging markets such as India and China is rising rapidly, further boosting silver's upward elasticity.
How can Thai investors seize this gold/silver rally?
Facing the strong rebound, Thai investors can participate in precious metals through multiple strategies. First, directly allocating to gold ETFs (GLDTHAI) and silver ETFs (THSI) via the ThaiETF.Asia platform is the most convenient method, with low trading costs, strong liquidity, and no physical storage concerns. Second, using the gold/silver ratio strategy—gradually increasing silver exposure when the ratio is above 80 and shifting to gold when it falls below 75—can generate excess returns.
Investors should also closely watch the upcoming U.S. July CPI data next week. If inflation continues to moderate, that will strengthen Fed rate-cut expectations and push gold and silver through resistance; conversely, an unexpected inflation rebound could trigger stagflation worries, which would also support precious metals' safe-haven demand. Long term, continued central bank gold buying, accelerating de-dollarization, and normalized geopolitical risk all provide structural support for gold and silver.
Risk warnings and investment advice
Despite strong short-term momentum, investors should remain alert to high-level pullback risk. Gold is now just a step from record highs, and some profit-takers may lock in gains, causing technical corrections. In addition, Fed policy remains uncertain; if the September meeting does not deliver a rate cut, market expectations could be revised. We recommend Thai investors use batch building and dollar-cost averaging to smooth costs and avoid chasing highs.
Thailand Precious Metals ETF Investment Network will continue to track gold and silver price dynamics and provide timely market analysis and investment strategies. For those interested in learning more about precious metals ETF investing, welcome to access professional research reports and real-time market data via the ThaiETF.Asia platform.
