On July 26, 2026, international gold and silver prices continued to edge up. As of press time, spot gold traded near $2,350/oz, up about 0.4% on the day; spot silver broke above $31 to $31.05/oz, up 0.6%. Market analysts noted that rising Fed rate cut expectations, Middle East geopolitical tensions, and continued central bank gold purchases jointly underpinned precious metal prices.
Fed rate cut expectations rise; weaker dollar supports gold and silver
Multiple Fed officials made dovish remarks this week, lifting market expectations for a September rate cut. CME FedWatch data showed the probability of a 25-bp cut in September rose to 78%, up 12 percentage points from last week. The dollar index fell to around 103.50, opening upside for gold and silver. A Standard Chartered precious metals analyst said: "The expectation of lower real rates is the core logic driving gold higher. If U.S. economic data remain weak, the Fed may start a rate-cut cycle in September, and gold could challenge the $2,400 round level."
Geopolitical risks and central bank buying sustain strong safe-haven demand
Tensions in the Middle East flared again as friction between Iran and Israel escalated, significantly boosting market risk aversion. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, keeping global geopolitical uncertainty high. World Gold Council data showed global central banks net purchased 283 tonnes of gold in Q2 2026, up 31% year on year, led by China, India, and Poland. Central bank buying provides a solid floor for gold prices.
Silver industrial demand recovers; solar PV shines
On silver, besides safe-haven appeal, recovering industrial demand also supports prices. According to the Silver Institute, global industrial silver demand rose 7% year on year in H1 2026, with solar PV silver use up 15% and new energy vehicle electronic components up 10%. Analysts said global green energy transition will keep boosting industrial silver demand, and silver could outperform gold going forward.
Institutional views: long-term bullish, but watch short-term pullback risk
- Goldman Sachs: Maintains year-end gold target of $2,500/oz, citing global liquidity easing and central bank buying as key drivers. For silver, target is $35/oz, with industrial demand recovery adding support.
- JPMorgan: Recommends allocating 5%-10% of portfolios to gold as a hedge, believing current geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty will keep supporting precious metals.
- UBS: Near term, watch gold pullback risk; if Fed rate cut expectations are overly priced in, a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" move may occur. Recommends building positions on dips.
ETF flows: sustained inflows
SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, saw holdings rise 4.2 tonnes this week to 1,250 tonnes, a three-month high. Silver ETF iShares Silver Trust also rose, adding 35 tonnes to 17,200 tonnes. Continued inflows indicate investors are optimistic about precious metals.
Thailand: SET gold ETFs in demand
In Thailand, SET-listed gold ETFs such as BCPG Gold ETF (BKF) saw net inflows of about 300 million baht this week, with both retail and institutional investors active. The Bank of Thailand has said it will closely monitor the impact of international gold price swings on domestic inflation but maintains its current monetary policy stance. For Thai investors, ETFs offer a convenient, low-cost way to gain gold exposure.
Overall, gold and silver prices maintain an upward trend amid multiple supportive factors. However, investors should be wary of risks such as stronger-than-expected U.S. data or a hawkish Fed shift. Allocate precious metals prudently based on your own risk appetite.
